Will My Money Last in Retirement? A Year-by-Year Check
Short answer: will my money last in retirement? It depends on how much you spend, what your savings earn and how fast prices rise. A $1,000,000 portfolio paying $40,000 in the first year, with withdrawals rising 3% a year, lasts about 28 years if it earns 4% and more than 40 years at 6%. Spending $60,000 a year lasts about 18 years at 4%, and Social Security of $24,000 stretches it to 32.
Key takeaways
- Three things decide how long money lasts: the withdrawal rate, the return and inflation.
- A higher first-year withdrawal rate shortens the life of the portfolio sharply: 3% lasts 39 years or more, 6% lasts under 20 at a 4% return.
- Social Security or a pension lowers what you draw and can double the years.
- These are steady-return illustrations. A bad run of early returns can run a portfolio down faster, so build in margin.
How long does $1,000,000 last?
The table assumes withdrawals at the start of each year, rising 3% a year with inflation, and a steady annual return on what is left. "40+" means the money lasts more than 40 years.
| Yearly spending (first year) | Withdrawal rate | Lasts at 4% return | Lasts at 6% return |
|---|---|---|---|
| $30,000 | 3% | 39 years | 40+ years |
| $40,000 | 4% | 28 years | 40+ years |
| $50,000 | 5% | 22 years | 29 years |
| $60,000 | 6% | 18 years | 22 years |
The familiar 4% rule assumes a diversified portfolio earning more than 4% on average. At a lower steady return, a 4% start does not last 30 years. See whether the 4% rule works and a safe withdrawal rate for early retirement.
How much does Social Security help?
If you spend $60,000 a year and receive $24,000 of Social Security, the portfolio only supplies $36,000 in the first year. The same $1,000,000 then lasts 32 years at a 4% return and more than 40 years at 6%, compared with 18 and 22 years without it. Benefits are adjusted for inflation, so this is a simplification. Check your estimate at official government sites and see when to claim Social Security.
What can break the plan?
- Poor early returns. A fall in the first years does more damage than the same fall later, because you are selling while prices are low. See sequence-of-returns risk.
- Higher inflation. Every extra point raises each year's withdrawal.
- Long life. Plan for 30 years or more, especially if you retire at 60.
- Health and care costs. They can arrive late and large.
- Taxes. Withdrawals from traditional accounts are taxed, which lowers what you can spend.
How do you make the money last longer?
- Lower the first-year withdrawal rate. Dropping from 5% to 4% adds about six years at a 4% return in the table.
- Flex your spending. Cutting spending after a bad year helps the portfolio recover. See withdrawal strategies compared.
- Delay claiming Social Security or work a little longer.
- Hold some safe money for the first years, so you do not sell stocks in a downturn.
- Review every year and adjust.
What spending level do you test?
Split your expected spending into essentials (housing, food, insurance, healthcare, utilities) and extras (travel, gifts, hobbies). Check whether essentials alone are covered by guaranteed-for-life income, meaning Social Security and any pension. If they are, a poor market hurts your extras but not your basics, which makes the plan sturdier. If not, test a cautious return and plan more margin. Spending usually changes through retirement too, often higher at the start and lower later, with healthcare rising at the end, so rerun the numbers every few years.
How do you check your own plan?
Write your expected yearly spending, subtract Social Security and any pension, and divide by your savings to get your withdrawal rate. Then compare with the table, and try a cautious return. See am I on track for retirement and how to calculate your real retirement number. MoneyFrame's drawdown tools run this for your own numbers.
Sources and further reading: SEC Investor.gov has a free retirement income calculator and guidance on withdrawals, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has retirement planning resources.
General education, not financial or investment advice. Reviewed October 2026. Figures assume a constant return, 3% inflation and withdrawals at the start of each year, which is an illustration only. Real returns vary, and investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
Frequently asked questions
Will my money last in retirement?
It depends on your spending, return and inflation. A $1,000,000 portfolio paying $40,000 in year one, rising 3% a year, lasts about 28 years at a 4% return and over 40 years at 6%.
How long will $1,000,000 last in retirement?
At $40,000 of first-year spending, about 28 years at a 4% steady return. At $60,000 it lasts about 18 years, and at $30,000 about 39 years. Social Security extends these figures.
Is the 4% rule safe?
It is a guideline built on historical returns for a diversified portfolio. It assumes average returns above 4% and a 30-year retirement, and it can fail with poor early returns. Treat it as a starting point.
How does Social Security affect how long my money lasts?
It lowers the amount you draw from savings. In the example, $24,000 of Social Security stretches $60,000 of spending from 18 years to 32 years at a 4% return.
What is the biggest risk to my retirement savings lasting?
Poor returns in the first years combined with steady withdrawals, known as sequence risk. Flexible spending and a cash reserve for early years reduce the damage.